Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-20 12.939537 14.790292 16.780187 19.074920 21.644202 24.428146 27.668873
2025-07-27 10.123133 12.618751 15.507520 19.082867 23.372256 28.335065 34.492810
2025-08-03 8.529547 11.249932 14.552592 18.828372 24.185264 30.639831 38.966887
2025-08-10 7.417540 10.292707 13.935058 18.841944 25.226915 33.195251 43.824864
2025-08-17 6.632335 9.618995 13.544559 19.016456 26.369585 35.821744 48.788287
2025-08-24 5.915477 8.941559 13.057653 18.978625 27.173242 37.994176 53.217885
2025-08-31 5.279721 8.297783 12.537073 18.816544 27.747167 39.834457 57.235688
2025-09-07 4.821166 7.855566 12.245939 18.925873 28.663983 42.141008 61.948158
2025-09-14 4.542469 7.648793 12.265566 19.461648 30.187136 45.327871 67.991403
2025-09-21 4.111462 7.162001 11.822748 19.268785 30.619236 46.966296 71.890182
2025-09-28 3.580279 6.462380 10.994358 18.422092 30.009929 47.044695 73.509169
2025-10-05 3.402407 6.323629 11.026739 18.897106 31.408010 50.106295 79.596030
2025-10-12 3.201085 6.132682 10.968858 19.236837 32.634218 52.997012 85.605979
2025-10-19 2.940571 5.814639 10.677363 19.176382 33.222121 54.940735 90.266102
2025-10-26 2.678111 5.465929 10.303080 18.944413 33.505268 56.403485 94.217805
2025-11-02 2.481696 5.218855 10.082084 18.949786 34.164703 58.468786 99.172292
2025-11-09 2.330734 5.042398 9.969450 19.128101 35.110178 61.014436 104.966940
2025-11-16 2.161319 4.813540 9.743821 19.089055 35.677407 62.961076 109.862516
2025-11-23 1.990518 4.564952 9.461734 18.926489 36.015016 64.532792 114.192814
2025-11-30 1.870160 4.407180 9.336291 19.036261 36.824329 66.905873 119.908028
2025-12-07 1.811069 4.371813 9.440913 19.574850 38.413348 70.641398 128.007898
2025-12-14 1.671517 4.150642 9.166819 19.380976 38.671058 72.115820 132.353292
2025-12-21 1.474115 3.782047 8.571009 18.529900 37.679744 71.389164 132.917876